Wozniak to Investors: IoT bubble could burst

start-ups are flooding the market with IoT and wearable devices for even the silliest niches. A fart-analyzing wearable, a sex-tracking wearable, and a smart bra that detects binge eating all indicate developers are getting carried away with connecting things to the Internet.

Is anyone interested integrating “fartalizer”?

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Woz fart analyzing gadget was referring to this : https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/963861855/keep-track-of-your-gases-with-ch4

IMHO, home automation, which focuses on improving convenience of user, will be here to stay because it has a clear purpose

Wearable, on the other hand, looks silly if you’re wearing them 90% of the time and are mostly focused on gathering information that you don’t really need to know. It’ll only be useful when they are able to analyze blood content for medical purposes. E.g administer insulin automagically when you have low sugar content in the blood

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I saw that rather “nonsense” headline.

All “bubbles” eventually burst … otherwise they would be stable “balloons” (or whatever container analogy you prefer).

Is this IoT industry in or entering a “bubble”. Sure … every growth industry eventually creates capacity or expectations (capital valuations) that far exceed what will be realized in usage.

Is the IoT bubble any more or less significant or worrisome than other industries (banking, real-estate, social media, energy)? I can’t say. I don’t think it is meaningful to assess the state of the industry by the amount of “hype” that surrounds it. IoT is certainly very “hyped” right now.

Yea there’s a lot of “IOT” gadgets that don’t interest me at all, things that make me say, “…why…?”

That’s what is giving IOT it’s confusion in my opinion.

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Wait, we’re in a bubble? Whoo hoo! We’re all rich!

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You’re not rich until you sell. :wink:

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One of the pull quotes:

Vice President of IoT Paul Brody said the market was in “a classic bubble phase,” and that most of the data being accumulated on these devices was “useless”.

All data is useless until it’s not. Storage is cheap. Store all of the data until we figure out what makes it useful.

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I guess I never thought of a SmartHome though in terms of data storage. Granted, there are aspects of data storage involved here, but it’s mostly about automation and convenience, not gathers of (useless) data.

Marketing companies are drooling over the potential of Smart Home datasets. It’s disgusting… But true. :pig:

It’s why Google paid $3.2B for Nest.

Oops, looks like you just blew your cover. Do you work for NSA? :slight_smile:

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[quote=“tgauchat, post:9, topic:17688, full:true”]Marketing companies are drooling over the potential of Smart Home datasets. It’s disgusting… But true. :pig:

It’s why Google paid $3.2B for Nest.
[/quote]

Granted, but… that’s from from the other side of the equation. As a consumer I don’t care about the data my smart home might generate. I mean I care in the sense that I don’t want too much private info out there… but I don’t care from consumer point of few. HA has value to me outside of data.

I suppose you could make the point that without revenue ST service isn’t going to be able to be free and if I’m not willing to pay for the service and if the “bubble bursts” and companies aren’t paying ST/Samsung for the data they are gleaning then it effects me as a consumer. But generally I think HA is different than many other IoT ideas.

Here’s a proposal. Food advertisement based on fart.
Fart information allows you to identify food that you like & food that is good for you. This information allows you to identify groups of people and their food preferences within specific regions. Then it allows targeted advertisement to specific crowd.
BILLION DOLLAR BUSINESS!

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Remember also that he was speaking as an investor to investors and entrepreneurs. And quoted in an investment blog.

When the dotcom bubble burst it didn’t mean people stopped buying and selling stuff online. Or that Amazon was affected. Just that investors stopped throwing mega bucks at 8 person companies that said they were going to open an online shoestore for cats.

With both Intel and Samsung getting into the data cloud side, the real market demand exists. But the investment returns from half-baked non-scalable tiny startups may soon decline significantly.

Both are getting into endpoint (and edge) hardware too… Intel Edison and Samsung ARTIK.

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Got me.

Not yet. Think predictive modeling based on your routines. Automation that just happens without programming. Giant data sets have value that goes far beyond just marketing. Being able to program events to fire at sunrise and sunset is nice, but have your home react to you getting out of bed in the morning is better. All the scheduling in the world flies right out the window when you decide to take a personal day and sleep in. My girlfriend has a speech she could give you about how the lights kept coming on when she was in bed with a bad cold. The point is, automation breaks, a truly intelligent home would react.

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A truly ThoughtfulHome! (™ = Nest).

Can anyone say “Eurika”? The Smart home which could take care of you.

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Another market study confirms slowing demand for connected home products.

New report by Argus Insights reveals that while security cameras are the most talked about home automation device, consumer interest is waning, and despite investments in Nest and Dropcam by Google, and investment in SmartThings by Samsung, consumer demand continues to lag.

http://www.argusinsights.com/connected-home-2015/

The Argus reports are always somewhat questionable, they basically report on what people are talking about on social media, not what they’re buying. They also use a fixed set of search terms. So for example they would ignore posts that said “HomeKit” or “Hue” or “Echo” if they didn’t also say “smart home” or “home automation.” And some of their reports just count the number of reviews on shopping sites. But they never factor in actual sales, not even Amazon’s publicly reported sales positions.

Worth looking at, but sometimes they draw the wrong conclusions because of their methodology.

Business Insider noted the opposite trend in other reports:

It’s also worth noting that while data from Argus suggests people aren’t interested in home automation devices, Google Trends — which shows what people are searching — shows that people are actually searching more for things like “smart home,” “smart thermostat,” and “connected home.”

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To be fair, Business Insider also referenced two other reports suggesting weak consumer adoption of smart home technologies.

While Argus’s data is based soley on the volume of consumer reviews from a slew of different retailers and not on sales figures, other data also suggests that U.S. consumers just aren’t that into the idea of home automation.

Read more: This Chart Shows Why Google’s Smart Home Bet May Be a Flop at First

My personal observation is that outside of a small circle of friends who fit a typical “geek” profile, no one is really into building a smart home. Even those few who jumped on a smart thermostat bandwagon are not planning to expand their involvement with smart home technologies.

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