My guess for mid 2016 wasn’t for first HomeKit devices.
Rather it was that by summer 2016 there will be several (not just HomeKit) full systems (not just a few devices) for reliable plug and play home automation with some voice control under $3500. That will mean lighting, door lock, garage door controller, motion sensors, contact sensors, moisture sensors, and some kind of A/V integration.
Obviously HomeKit/Insteon will be one contender, but I do expect there to be several more in a year, with Samsung/SmartThings probably being another.
I’m not trying to be a first adopter here.
edited to update It’s clear my Summer 2016 target date was way too optimistic. HomeKit has moved much more slowly than I expected, and consequently there has been less pressure on competitors. The earliest I now expect to see multiple plug and play systems under $5,000 is summer 2017, and I expect them to fall into two categories: Full feature systems like SmartThings and limited feature systems such as I expect HomeKit will now be.
Limited feature Systems will only work with a few specific devices and may be limited to lights, locks, HVAC, cameras, and probably garage doors. But very few sensors other than those built into other devices like motion sensors built into security cameras. The limited feature systems will basically be a smarter thermostat, a smarter lightbulb, etc. that will replace your existing dumb devices, but you won’t buy devices in categories that you didn’t already have. (Even a voice controller like Echo or Google Home could be considered a smarter music player.)
In contrast, full-featured systems will add several different kinds of sensors, a hub, maybe some relays – – devices that you only need in order to make the automations work.
For my own needs, a limited feature system will probably be sufficient. But many community members will certainly look for full-featured systems.
So I do still think HomeKit will put market pressure on all the home automation manufacturers, but I also think that once iOS 10 is out the market will split into very distinct categories.